fox files

Canada today stands at a crossroads of its own making. In 2025, the country finds itself locked in disputes with both the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. On one side, Beijing has escalated to crushing tariffs: 100% duties on Canadian rapeseed oil, oilcake, and peas, along with 25% tariffs on pork and seafood. On the other side, President Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian goods as part of his effort to rebalance the US-Canada trade relationship. Instead of crafting a coherent strategy that reflects where Canada’s true vulnerabilities lie, Prime Minister Mark Carney has inverted his approach. He applies sharp elbows and cutting rhetoric toward Washington, while offering timid, almost apologetic responses to Beijing. This is the precise opposite of what sound strategy requires.

The imbalance in Canada’s posture is striking. Against Trump, Carney has embraced a combative tone, accusing the US President of “attacking Canadian workers” and denouncing American tariffs as “insulting.” Canadian officials openly cast the United States, a democratic ally, as a trade bully. By contrast, against China, whose actions have been objectively harsher, Ottawa has tread carefully. Canadian officials use words like “disappointed” or “concerned,” avoiding any personal criticism of Xi Jinping. Despite this ongoing trade dispute, Carney has even allowed Canada, through the Canada Infrastructure Bank, a taxpayer-funded Crown corporation, to finance over a billion dollars for the construction of ships by a Chinese state-owned enterprise. The optics are troubling, since federal funds are flowing directly to a hostile nation’s industrial capacity. This is not a trivial difference in tone or policy. It reflects a strategic inversion that damages Canada’s interests on both fronts.

Why is Canada soft on China? The answer is fear. Beijing has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to retaliate with force against those who cross it. When Canada arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou at the request of the US, China retaliated by detaining two Canadian citizens, the “two Michaels.” Ottawa learned the hard way that Beijing’s authoritarian regime punishes dissent not with diplomatic displeasure but with targeted coercion. Canadian leaders now calibrate their language with extreme caution, worrying that blunt criticism of Xi will provoke still harsher retaliation. Hence the muted responses to tariffs that devastate Canadian farmers and exporters. China receives softly worded complaints, never sharp denunciations.

Why, then, is Canada so aggressive toward the US? Because it believes it can get away with it. Criticizing Trump costs Ottawa nothing domestically. In fact, it scores political points at home, where anti-Trump sentiment remains strong because Carney is painting him and America as the enemy while refusing to do the same with Xi and China, even as Ottawa funnels taxpayer money into Chinese shipbuilding through the Canada Infrastructure Bank. Casting Trump as a bully rallying against Canadian sovereignty generates applause, not risk. Moreover, Canada assumes the deep bonds of alliance, trade, and geography make the US relationship too durable to rupture. Ottawa believes it can insult Trump and his tariffs without jeopardizing the overall partnership. This calculation is cynical, but worse, it is strategically foolish.

Canada has far more to lose from a rupture with the US than with China. Roughly three-quarters of Canadian exports flow south. China, while important, accounts for less than one-fifth of Canadian exports. The Canadian economy is entwined with America’s at every level, from manufacturing supply chains to energy infrastructure. Even temporary friction with Washington imposes real costs. Yet Ottawa has chosen to escalate tensions with the one partner it can least afford to alienate.

By contrast, China respects strength. Beijing views deference as weakness and boldness as deterrence. Countries that stand up to Chinese coercion often command greater respect than those that shrink away. Australia provides a useful example. When Canberra called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19, China lashed out with punitive tariffs on barley, wine, and coal. But Australia did not fold. Instead, it aligned itself more closely with the US and other allies. The result was that Beijing eventually eased restrictions, realizing its tactics were not breaking Australian resolve. Canada could have followed a similar path, pressing its case against China’s tariffs firmly and publicly, aligning with the US and EU to challenge Beijing’s coercion. Instead, Ottawa chose polite appeals, which Beijing predictably ignored.

The irony is that Trump, for all his bluster, is eminently open to respectful negotiation. His tariffs are not designed to sever trade with Canada but to rebalance it. The US has long been frustrated by Canada’s sky-high dairy tariffs and protectionist measures. Trump’s position is that allies must trade fairly. A Canadian government that acknowledged these grievances and approached Trump respectfully could have found a path to compromise. Offering concessions on dairy, for instance, might have secured relief for autos and steel, sectors vital to Canada’s prosperity. Instead, Carney chose public confrontation, which only hardened Trump’s resolve.

The double standard undermines Canada’s credibility. By blasting the US while whispering to China, Ottawa signals that it is willing to antagonize a democratic ally while appeasing an authoritarian adversary. This posture is not only hypocritical but self-defeating. It alienates the partner Canada needs most and emboldens the rival least likely to show restraint.

Strategically, the inversion is clear. With Washington, Canada should have taken a softer approach, emphasizing shared values, acknowledging grievances, and seeking quiet compromise. With Beijing, Canada should have spoken bluntly, calling out economic coercion and rallying international coalitions to resist it. Such a reversal would have protected Canada’s economy and strengthened its geopolitical position. Instead, Ottawa has done the opposite, and the consequences are now being felt across its export industries.

To appreciate the magnitude of this error, consider the numbers. In 2024 alone, US tariffs generated billions in additional costs for Canadian exporters. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, intended to “stand up” to Trump, backfired by raising prices for Canadian consumers and damaging small businesses. At the same time, Chinese tariffs on canola, pork, and seafood gutted some of Canada’s most important agricultural exports. Together, these twin conflicts have inflicted severe pain on farmers, manufacturers, and consumers. The very people Carney claims to protect are those most harmed by his miscalculated strategies.

A more prudent approach would have been obvious. Recognize that the US, while tough under Trump, is not an adversary but an ally demanding fairness. Respectful dialogue, not theatrical defiance, would have yielded better results. Meanwhile, treat China as what it is: a rival that understands only strength. Blunt criticism, public confrontation, and coalition-building would have raised the costs for Beijing and perhaps deterred its most punitive actions.

Canada’s inverted strategy represents a failure to match tactics to reality. It reflects a preference for domestic applause over international strategy, for safe political theater over difficult diplomacy. Carney has chosen to play tough where it is least useful and to play weak where toughness is most needed. The result is a Canada weakened on both fronts, facing economic pain and diminished leverage. If Ottawa hopes to repair its position, it must reverse course: show respect to Washington, and show steel to Beijing.